PT KONTAK PERKASA FUTURES – Gold futures finished with a modest loss Monday as the dollar touched its highest level in months and financial markets reckon with a surge in oil prices and its possible impact on the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy plans.
June gold GCM8, +0.14% fell 60 cents, or less than 0.1%, to settle at $1,314.10 an ounce. Prices last week grazed a roughly two-month low and suffered from a third straight weekly loss.
The ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.10% gained nearly 0.2% to 92.714 Monday, after reaching its highest level since late December. The moves follow the benchmark’s fourth straight weekly advance.
“Dollar strength has been the most persistent headwind for gold in recent weeks,” Peter Grant, a vice president at Zaner Precious Metals, told MarketWatch.
The yellow metal “has displayed a modicum of resilience over the last several sessions, holding last week’s low at 1,300.67, even as the dollar index set new 4-month highs,” he said. “Nonetheless, I still perceive the downside to be vulnerable as long as resistance at $1,324.93/$1,326.55 is intact.”
Investors may continue to push riskier markets higher, driving down gold, after Friday’s mixed U.S. April jobs report somewhat cooled expectations for a steeper climb in official interest rates. The economic calendar this week also includes closely watched consumer prices and any signs within it for the inflation picture.
The dollar has gained and gold declined amid evidence in speeches from select Fed officials that they’re open-minded to more aggressive interest-rate action even if the official line at the central bank is for a slow approach to reversing easy-money policy, said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets. Financial markets generally believe the Fed could raise rates as soon as next month and a drop in the unemployment rate, even if April payrolls lagged expectations, further fueled that argument, he said.
“These factors are keeping the dollar rally going, which is pushing the gold price lower. Hedge funds and money managers have trimmed their long position and if this trend continues, it is likely that we may see the gold price breaking [below] the $1,300 mark,” Aslam said.
“Having said all this, we have started a very important week and some major news are due this week and they have potential to support the gold price. Trump’s decision on Iran, a U.S. and China trade deal are just a few of them,” he added.
A trio of Fed members, including Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin, Chicago Fed president Charles Evans and Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan were slated to speak later Monday, potentially offering the market further clues to the direction of interest rates.
And broader market relationships remained in focus. For one, oil prices climbed above $70 a barrel on Monday as investors kept a close eye on comments linked to the Iran nuclear deal. Higher oil prices could help spur inflation.
Global trade headlines will also be in focus for investors after a team of U.S. negotiators appeared to garner no deal out of talks with counterparts in Beijing. China state media indicated that talks were positive, and more talks will be needed to avoid a trade war, the South China Morning Post reported.
In other metals trading, July silver SIN8, +0.18% fell nearly 0.2% to $16.495 an ounce, while July copper HGN8, +0.21% ended at $3.079 a pound, down 0.2%. July platinum PLN8, +0.08% rose 0.3% to $913.30 an ounce and June palladium PAM8, +0.68% added 0.5% to $962.10 an ounce.
In ETF action, the SPDR Gold Shares GLD, +0.02% traded less than 0.1% lower and the iShares Silver Trust SLV, -0.13% fell about 0.2%, while the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners GDX, +0.00% was little changed.
Source : marketwatch.com